By François Mabille
Since the Lateran Treaty of 1929, the Holy See has held a distinctive place in global diplomacy, recognized as a sovereign entity with three key pillars: neutrality, mediation, and the defense of universal ethical values. This approach has allowed the Vatican to engage in high-level discussions on human rights, peace, and environmental issues. Despite its discreet nature, its extensive diplomatic network comprising more than 180 nunciatures gives it considerable influence.
The Vatican maintains bilateral diplomatic relations with nearly every country in the world. However, lacking a military, natural resources, or a strong economy, it cannot rely on traditional tools of diplomacy. Instead, its influence stems from its moral persuasion and the vast global network of the Catholic Church, including dioceses, Catholic associations, and religious congregations. This dynamic is particularly evident in its interactions with major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia.
On the multilateral stage, the Holy See actively participates in several international organizations. As a permanent observer at the United Nations, it regularly intervenes in nearly 30 institutions on issues ranging from human rights to disarmament and peacebuilding. It also plays a role in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), advocating for political stability, interfaith dialogue, and minority rights. In Rome, it pushes for ethical approaches to food security and sustainable development at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and it engages in debates on healthcare and bioethics within the World Health Organization (WHO).
The pope vs. populism
However, the rise of populism and nationalism is challenging the effectiveness of international institutions, which in turn threatens the Vatican’s traditional avenues of influence. The strength of Trumpism and the weakening of multilateral organizations raise questions about the Holy See’s future role. On one hand, the decline of multilateralism diminishes the Vatican’s ability to shape global discussions through moral authority. On the other, this crisis may ultimately reinforce its position as an alternative mediator in a world where governments struggle to communicate.
One of the Vatican’s biggest advantages in this landscape is its unmatched global reach. No other religious leader enjoys the same level of media visibility and moral legitimacy, which allows the pope to act as a unique ethical and political counterweight on the world stage.
As the European Union struggles to present a coherent ideological alternative and major democracies wrestle with internal populist tensions, Pope Francis could emerge as one of the few figures capable of offering a unifying global message. His advocacy for migrants, climate action, and economic justice puts him in direct opposition to the nationalist and protectionist ideals of Trumpism. The U.S. approach to diplomacy favoring direct negotiations with Russia while sidelining Ukraine, also contrasts with the Vatican’s insistence on including all parties in peace efforts.
Balancing spiritual leadership and diplomacy
The pope must navigate his dual role as a spiritual leader and a diplomatic actor while avoiding the perception that he is engaging in direct political opposition.
To do so, the Vatican can leverage the growing interdependence of societies and the influence of transnational actors. Traditionally, the Holy See has relied on local churches and Catholic NGOs. Pope Francis has expanded this approach by incorporating social movements into Vatican diplomacy.
Throughout his papacy, he has met with labor activists, environmental defenders, and migrant rights advocates. At a time when multilateralism is in crisis, this broad-based strategy could become a key asset. By positioning itself as a bridge between civil society and major political institutions, the Vatican could redefine its role and strengthen its impact in a rapidly changing world.
Finally, as alliances become increasingly fragmented, governments seek informal diplomatic channels. The Holy See, with its history of neutrality, is well-positioned to provide spaces for dialogue.
Amid the rise of populism and the decline of multilateralism, the Vatican will likely need to rethink its role. However, by maintaining a coherent vision and serving as a stabilizing force, it can remain a significant global actor in an era of geopolitical realignment. – La Croix International
François Mabille is a political science professor specializing in international relations. He serves as the Director of the Geopolitical Observatory of Religion at IRIS, the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, and is the Secretary General of the International Federation of Catholic Universities. His research focuses on Catholic internationalism, the role of religions in global affairs, and conflict sociology.
